IMA India’s Q4 FY24 BCPI Survey Reveals Shifting Industry Sentiments

The BCPI survey, which offers a measured analysis of prevailing sentiments across diverse sectors, witnessed a modest recovery, rising by 1.6 points to reach 62.1 in January 2024, following a marginal dip of 6 points in October.

Business and economic research firm IMA India recently conducted its quarterly survey called Business Confidence and Performance Index (BCPI) for the fourth quarter of FY24, drawing responses from 155 CEOs and CFOs.

The survey, which offers a measured analysis of prevailing sentiments across diverse sectors, witnessed a modest recovery, rising by 1.6 points to reach 62.1 in January 2024, following a marginal dip of 6 points in October.

The focal point of this resurgence is a notable increase of 5.8 points in the macro-economic index. This shift suggests a tempered optimism among businesses, with fewer entities anticipating a deterioration in on-ground conditions by April. Concurrently, a 5.4-point rise in Capex intent hints at a potential upward trajectory in investment activities.

However, the report reveals a nuanced scenario with a 1.1-point decline in the business-performance index. This subtle downturn indicates a cautious sentiment, prompting a closer examination of specific performance parameters.

Key findings underscore the heightened optimism among larger companies concerning the macroeconomy, Capex intent, and overall business performance. Sector-wise analysis unveils a mixed outlook, with four out of eight sectors anticipating improvements, while others adopt a more circumspect stance.

Manufacturing companies have taken the lead this quarter, surpassing their services counterparts. Projections for specific business performance parameters indicate anticipated strength in sales growth and capital expenditure. Conversely, expectations are subdued for new orders, profitability, capacity utilization, and new hiring.

The report also points to a stabilization of spending patterns in the Jan-March quarter, with areas like advertising, travel, and team-building efforts showing signs of consolidation.

In conclusion, the BCPI remains a crucial benchmark for industry sentiments, offering stakeholders valuable insights into the evolving economic landscape. As India navigates through global uncertainties, these indicators provide a measured perspective for businesses to navigate challenges and seize opportunities.